Random thoughts about the election

I've had a few thoughts accumulating that didn't really rate individual diaries....

There won't be a lull in the campaign during the Olympics

CW has it that there is about to be a lull in the campaign because of the Olympics. The Olympics won't  dominate the news cycles as much as CW holds. Politics and Iraq will. In years past we were all so sick of Olympic advertising by this time that we were glad to see the Olympic come because it meant an end to the relentless Olympic-ization of everything. This year?  Nada.  The lack of dream teams, lack of stars,  expectations of anti-Americanism, the already hot election cycle, and the fact that Bush is behind and can't afford to quit campaigning for those two weeks will mean a very small impact by the Olympics on this year's election.

We may hit the tragic 1000 US deaths in Iraq during the RNC convention

 

We're closing in on the number very quickly.  With no let up in the hostilities there in no reason to think that it won't be passed. Given the recent resumption of "major combat operations" the death toll will  probably accelerate. Hitting the 1000 number during the convention will be a major distraction to the Republican message. Perhaps we'll see an "inadvertent" withholding of casualty figures that could push the numbers over 1000 until after the convention.

Riots at the RNC Convention

There are going to be a lot of protests at the convention. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Roves dirty tricks people will be there too.  Expect to see burning flags, anarchists crashing corporate franchises, and a more than overwhelming response by the authorities. Tear gas anyone?  All of course  playing into the RNC spinner's hands showing how extreme out of touch the Democrats have become.  "Look outside to see the REAL Democratic party," they'll say.

The anti-Americanism at the Olympics won't hurt Bush

Bush has already played his isolationist card.  His supporters love his "go it alone" machismo.  When the crowds start booing the American national anthem it will only server to enforce the right's feeling of "screw them, we can do it alone" and the left's conviction that America is isolated in the community of  nations. The booing won't change the election numbers.

A Terrorist attack won't help Bush

People are fed up. You're safe! A New Alert!  Mission Accomplished! Iraq = Terror! Iraq a Success!  1000 US deaths in Iraq and growing!  If a major attack happens then the people will want to take it out on someone. Iraq and Afghanistan have already been taken out and taking out Iran will be seen as making the mess worse. People might like the idea of attacking Saudi Arabia but that won't happen. They'll turn on Bush. They'll remember his false word of comfort and it will be clear from the attack that he hasn't kept us safe.  The people will be scared and looking for someone to take care of them. Just like last time. But the next time they won't turn to Bush; he won't have been able to deliver the one thing they wanted above all else. Security.

The Campaign is nice and polite today compared to what's coming

Folks its gonna get uuugly. The RNC convention will be a "hate fest." The press will decry it while gleefully reporting every smear. Kerry will lose a point or two in the polls. Then he'll go negative through proxy. AWOL with new "proof", former drug use, alcoholism, abortion, Saudi connections, Halliburton, etc. The Republican's are setting themselves up for it nicely. They have made a HUGE issue about how relevant Kerry's actions in the 70's are to his candidacy that they will have no defense. There is a lot of ammo scattered across the playing field. When this all goes nuclear I'd rather be Kerry than Bush.

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It is going to be an interesting eleven weeks!